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BMR Morning Market Musings... - BullMarketRun.com

April 25, 2012

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold is trading in a narrow band ahead of today’s Fed Statement and Bernanke news conference…as of 5:45 am Pacific, the yellow metal is unchanged at $1,641…Silver is a nickel higher at $30.90…Copper is up 3 pennies at $3.75…Crude Oil is ahead 79 cents to $104.34 while the U.S. Dollar Index continues to show some weakness, down slightly to 79.15…

The current disparity between the price of Gold and Gold mining stocks is clearly evident in this 4-year monthly comparative chart below from John…an encouraging fact, however, is that the stocks have landed on support…

Today’s markets

A decent day is shaping up in the markets and hopefully Bernanke will throw some fuel on the fire later this morning…European markets, with the exception of the FTSE, are significantly higher while China’s Shanghai Composite climbed nearly 1% overnight to close at 2407…technically, this Index is looking quite strong and is poised for a potential breakout…stock index futures in New York are pointing toward a positive opening on Wall Street, buoyed by better than expected quarterly earnings from Apple after yesterday’s closing bell…Apple is simply amazing – its quarterly profit almost doubled, blowing past Wall Street estimates after a jump in iPhone sales, particularly in the greater China region, soothing fears that the iPhone was past its best days for sharp growth…this also underscores how the Chinese economy, driven more than ever by consumer spending, is so potentially lucrative for foreign companies that can gain a foothold there…the Chinese, of course, also love Gold and the story is the same in India…

A weaker-than-expected U.S. durable goods number, just released in the last 15 minutes, has trimmed early gains in stock index futures…

Figuring Out The ECB

The ECB’s government bond-buying program (LTRO) has essentially been inactive for the past 10 weeks, and it’s likely no coincidence that Gold and the Venture Exchange have struggled during most of that time…

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi gave no indication on Wednesday that the ECB was poised to provide more support for banks or governments but also said the time was not right to consider rolling back its crisis-fighting measures…there are growing expectations in financial markets that the ECB will have to ride to the rescue again with Spain under intense pressure, the Dutch government having collapsed over budget plans and recent data showing the euro zone is being driven back into recession…

The message from the currency bloc’s central bankers is very different – having created more than a trillion euros of low-cost, three-year money via so-called LTROs to avert a credit crunch, time has been bought for governments and banks to cut debt and clean up balance sheets…Draghi rammed home that message in an address to the European Parliament’s economic committee…”Now, the ball is entirely, squarely in the court of governments and banks,” he said…however, he added that any “exit strategy” from the ECB’s emergency measures, something Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann and others have said should be discussed, was premature given weak economic conditions…Draghi said banks must strengthen their finances further, including by retaining earning and bonus payments, while governments must stick with fiscal austerity drives which in some cases are driving countries deep into recession…”We are just in the middle of the river that we are crossing,” he said…”The only answer is to persevere”…

The ECB has played its part in buying governments time…”Our LTROs have been quite timely and successful,” said Draghi…”If the only thing we had achieved is to buy time, which by the way is not the only thing we achieved, we would have been successful…I think buying time is not a minor achievement”…

Britain In First Double-Dip Since 1970’s

Britain’s economy slid into its second recession since the financial crisis – its first “double dip” since the 1970’s – after official data released this morning unexpectedly showed a fall in output in the first three months of 2012…this will pile pressure on Prime Minister David Cameron’s embattled coalition government…the Office for National Statistics said Britain’s GDP fell 0.2% in the first quarter of 2012 after contracting by 0.3% at the end of 2011, confounding forecasts for 0.1% growth…

Great Panther Silver (GPR, TSX)

One of our favorite Silver producers is Great Panther (GPR, TSX) which has been trading in a long downsloping channel (or a flag formation?) for the past year…it’s now back to important support after dropping as low as $1.81 Monday…it closed at $1.88 yesterday…below is a very interesting 2.5-year weekly GPR chart from John…

John has two other company charts this morning – Hulda Silver (HDA, TSX-V), and Sandstorm Gold (SSL, TSX-V) which has recently proposed up to a 1-for-5 share rollback in an attempt to pursue a dual listing on a U.S. stock exchange…

Huldra Silver (HDA, TSX-V)

Sandstorm Gold (SSL, TSX-V)

Note: John, Jon and Terry do not hold positions in GPR, HDA or SSL.


  1. Stock rollback is the worst thing they can do. Just look at US Silver after their rollback… They now had to actually “rollback” the idea to list on AMEX instead…Why don’t management ever learn?

    BMR, appreciate all your work with TA but the support-levels we have seen the last couple of months here on your site has been pretty useless unfortunately. That’s just the markets right now. We can just watch it slide and hope for the best…our holdings are already crushed.

    Comment by Marky — April 25, 2012 @ 5:07 am

  2. Marky – truer words never said… look at GPR.. testament to the whole sector…. the key to me is volume and you can see the huge churn then nada… we have had almost 30 mill shares on the venture this am in the first 15 minutes… havent seen that in months… if my memory serves me correct… not a large gain, but it may be an encouraging sign.. just read a report from Jeb H … we have bottomed, and will begin to move out of this consolidation and decline like yesterday…

    hmmmmmmmm…….. so everyone thinks we cant go any lower….. so if I am the norm, and I am going to sell all holdingsa that I can today, and I am the only bonehead in the world that bought apple puts, then Jeb is right…:) I will wait a day!:)

    Comment by Jeremy — April 25, 2012 @ 5:45 am

  3. DOUG KASS: Frankly, The Bears Might Be Screwed

    Read more:

    Comment by Andrew — April 25, 2012 @ 6:00 am

  4. We gapped open this a.m., another good sign. The slow stochastic
    %K is again leading the way. If it should break 20, we are off to
    the races, but for now, i am pleased it is above the %D. If we
    continue to have a positive day, i expect things to pick up in
    the afternoon, nfld time. R !

    Comment by Bert — April 25, 2012 @ 6:12 am

  5. AOX -Andover Mining Corp. Just south of Nova Gold (soon to be Nova copper). Do some DD and u may find this play very interesting…

    Comment by db — April 25, 2012 @ 7:30 am

  6. Sorry, NovaCopper opended today (NCQ), it is trading at 3.70 as I type. Andover land package is bigger better access roads apparantly…

    Comment by db — April 25, 2012 @ 7:35 am

  7. RBW. Is there anyone out there still thinking they got something good going on or is everybody just abandoning the ship?

    Comment by Kalkan - Sweden — April 25, 2012 @ 8:10 am

  8. Still holding but not accumulating thats for sure.

    Comment by db — April 25, 2012 @ 8:11 am

  9. The Venture is performing in a pathetic manner, up to 3 plus back to 1 plus, which would indicate
    sellers are selling into any movement at all. I am pretty near ready to hibernate. R !

    Comment by Bert — April 25, 2012 @ 8:14 am

  10. the level of stupidity Bert … this is why at times TA means zip.. sentiment is everyting!!

    Comment by Jeremy — April 25, 2012 @ 9:26 am

  11. Jeremy

    Right on there Brother ! There can’t be any options, warrants, or whatever. left to sell
    I want state, better days —–, but i can’t see to get it out. R !

    Comment by Bert — April 25, 2012 @ 9:31 am

  12. RBW

    One thing i know with certainty is, John/Jon are not buying today.

    Comment by Bert — April 25, 2012 @ 9:35 am

  13. Kalkan – I’m not sure what’s up with RBW but I smell a rat. Dan Marsman/Marsden? was making phone calls to shareholders over the weekend promoting RBW with a “project update”. He was not very good at promoting – what I learned was that they are going to explore the Referendum property first and the International will be last – the opposite to what was relayed in their press release! Referendum is the property they paid through the nose for from Tom Cherry, so either there is something compelling or they realised there was a problem with the International and needed something to replace it asap. Dan did advise that there were no permitting problems nor delays. I’m disappointed with their venture with Roodenburg and Pirie and I think they will regret that move – again perhaps it was to get a quick drill result for the market because of delays/problems with Big Strike but I see nothing special about Jewel Ridge? I hope they do a Roodenburg/Pirie special and redrill a known target to lift the SP! 🙂 If you are in contact with Rainbow IR and learn anything new, please share – I would appreciate it! 🙂
    PS. I’m not bashing but it’s reminiscent of VGD last Summer – I was as upbeat as anyone, I shouldn’t have listened to the stories (.40 by the end of the first quarter and .80 by the beginning of the third quarter) and sold at .27 – .285 the same as the Insiders and I’d be wearing a big grin now and considering reentering when it bottoms.

    Comment by Andrew — April 25, 2012 @ 9:42 am

  14. More optimism from KWN:
    Embry – Market Manipulation More Blatant & There’s More of It

    and Jim Sinclair audio:

    Comment by Andrew — April 25, 2012 @ 9:52 am

  15. RBW

    Andrew – I smell a rat

    Bert – That is a bad smell for sure. Anyway, i can still visualize that big rock
    Mr. Johnston was carrying around & the smile that went with it, but i still have
    faith in John/Jon & their dd. R !

    Comment by Bert — April 25, 2012 @ 9:53 am

  16. good post Andrew. tsx.v will probably see 1300

    Comment by dave — April 25, 2012 @ 10:37 am

  17. I leaped into FROG / U.S. today with a little of myprofits just for short term trade.

    Comment by dave — April 25, 2012 @ 10:37 am

  18. GBB is likely to hit the 10 cents mark this week!

    Comment by Theodore — April 25, 2012 @ 10:51 am

  19. Andrew – thanks for that post.
    I will sit tight here for a while. Haven’t lost anything yet, I’m in at 0.19. But I never learn when to sell. It’s about greed I believe. Think there are some that bought their shares between 0.25-0.28 and without a doubt are panicking.

    Comment by Kalkan - Sweden — April 25, 2012 @ 11:13 am

  20. Kalkan – yes its greed and the stories! 🙂 I’m in the same boat!

    Comment by Andrew — April 25, 2012 @ 11:43 am

  21. Then we just need to hang in there. After rain comes sunshine!

    Comment by Kalkan - Sweden — April 25, 2012 @ 12:08 pm

  22. A breakout of the 20 SMA for the HUI should correspond to a bottom for gold stocks. Currently its trending up touching the 10 SMA.

    BSX which was the leader to the downside along with CAN in March are now above their 20 SMA. BSX closing above its 50 SMA today with strong volume. I think we are starting to see a reversal.

    Comment by Andrew M — April 25, 2012 @ 12:29 pm

  23. GBB going to hit $.10 and what is the big deal!Are we supposed to pile in at $.10 because Theodore has give everyone on this board the 6th sense technical charts!Enough with GBB who cares,if you didn’t sell GBB at $.65,$.75,$.85 on the way up or better still if you didn’t sell GBB at $.75,$.65,$.55,$.45,$.35 on the way down that is everyone’s problem,I am trying to understand what BMR has to do with the price being $.11 for GBB and going to hit $.10 this week,YIPPY KA YEY.

    Comment by Johnmtl — April 25, 2012 @ 12:38 pm

  24. Andrew M…….. I agree with you I believe we are at last seeing the basis of a reversal. This is not to say it will reverse to the upside immediately but will at least begin basing.

    Andrew,Kalkan et al…. I would like to suggest that you formulate a trading plan before you buy a stock. Do not copy a plan from another investor….that does not work, believe me I tried,….no two people execute a plan the same way. A plan keeps the emotions almost out of trading.

    You should include as a minimum….. entry and exit levels(ranges)(including stop levels) that suit you and do not get greedy…only change your plan if the fundamentals change.

    I am not trying to be intrusive….just helpful….it is what I do and it works.

    hope this helps.

    Comment by John - BMR — April 25, 2012 @ 12:50 pm

  25. John – I agree with you but look at the comments Jon made to Bert when he sold his RBW shares and your comments about not panicking because it was Anon and Jitney selling. What was the point of those comments if not to stop shareholders from pulling the trigger? That’s why I say don’t listen to the stories but trade the numbers. Why no update on the RBW project?

    Comment by Andrew — April 25, 2012 @ 1:26 pm

  26. Andrew
    Any comments Jon and I make are our opinions and information statements. We do NOT intend or expect to take the decision making from anyone. I hope this is very clear.
    Believe me…… the decisions are those of the investors.

    Comment by John - BMR — April 25, 2012 @ 1:35 pm

  27. John

    I can’t say that i agree entirely with your remarks & i don’t want to refer to BMR in particular,
    I am not a lawyer, far from it, just a lowly person, but i do have certain opinions. It is my
    humble opinion that anyone offering free service, whether it be on an internet site, or any form of
    communications, must at least share some responsibility, or could even be libel, that is, if they are
    inclined to be”’SPECIFIC”’, which may be the key word. I will use bringing forward stock picks as
    an example, ”now is the time to buy ABC”, ”you should accumulate ABC now”. ”i have never seen a
    a better buy than ABC”. I could go on & on, but it’s not my intention to test it in a court of law,
    unless i thought i would win & that would be a great way to recoup my losses. (joking) R !

    Comment by Bert — April 25, 2012 @ 2:45 pm

  28. In case smeone who may be holding DVV

    Driven Capital Corp (DVV:TSXV) – News Alert

    Driven Capital Retains Market Making Services

    TSX Venture Exchange: DVV

    Driven Capital Corp. (TSXV: DVV) (“Driven” or the “Company”) has, subject to regulatory approval, retained Venture Liquidity Providers Inc. (VLP) to conduct market-making services.VLP is a consulting firm headquartered in Toronto, which has been engaged in order to maintain an orderly trading market of the Company’s common shares on the TSX Venture Exchange.

    The market-making services will be undertaken by VLP through a registered broker, W.D.Latimer Co.Ltd., in compliance with TSX Venture Exchange Policy 3.4.The agreement is for a 12-month period, will automatically renew for additional 12 month-periods, and may be terminated at any time upon written notification by either party.Driven will pay a monthly fee of $5,000.00 plus HST in exchange for VLP’s services.

    Driven is a publicly traded exploration company focused on the discovery of high-value precious metals deposits in North America. Please visit our web site at DrivenCapital.ca.

    On Behalf of the Board of Directors of Driven Capital Corp.

    “Toma Sojonky”

    Comment by Bert — April 25, 2012 @ 2:50 pm

  29. Bert
    Be careful, there may be a lawyer lurking on this board!!!!!!!

    Comment by John - BMR — April 25, 2012 @ 3:10 pm

  30. The daily CDNX chart looks ever more compelling this evening…

    We closed up on very good volume. After bouncing off yesterday’s low, a doji was formed,
    which indicates the bears were winning until near the end of the day, when the bulls took
    over & pushed the price higher. The RSI is now pointing up, the slow stochastic %K has
    once again moved up above the %D, after falling below earlier today. Last but not least,
    the cfm shows buying coming in. I feel pretty good tonight. R !

    Comment by Bert — April 25, 2012 @ 3:13 pm

  31. John – Bert Be careful, there may be a lawyer lurking on this board!!!!!!!

    Bert – I will be acting on my own behalf, that is, if i can ever get the nerve to attend court.
    Now tell me that we have bottomed & a much better day is expected tomorrow. R !

    Comment by Bert — April 25, 2012 @ 3:16 pm

  32. It certainly is starting to look more bullish, you must wait for the charts tomorrow. Sorry!!!!!!!!!!

    Comment by John - BMR — April 25, 2012 @ 3:26 pm

  33. John – It certainly is starting to look more bullish, you must wait for the charts tomorrow. Sorry!!!!!!!!!!

    Bert – Don’t be sorry, you can use my post # 27, if you don’t want to wait until tomorrow. Good night !

    Comment by Bert — April 25, 2012 @ 3:30 pm

  34. A blend of interesting news:
    Gold “Bargain of Lifetime” As Gold Standard Inevitable, Possibly Within Year – $10,000/oz Looms

    Comment by Andrew — April 26, 2012 @ 4:35 am

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