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September 21, 2011

BMR Morning Market Musings From Rouyn-Noranda…

Rouyn-Noranda, Quebec

Markets are quiet and Gold is down slightly in advance of an important Fed statement expected at 2:15 pm Eastern…as of 11:15 am Eastern, the yellow metal is off $8 an ounce at $1,797…Silver is up 60 cents at $40.34, Copper is up a penny at $3.77, Crude Oil is flat at  $86.89 while the U.S. Dollar Index has jumped one-fifth of a point to 77.16…all eyes are on Ben Bernanke again today as he’s expected to launch the 2011 version of an early 1960’s join Fed-Treasury action to push down long-term interest rates, “Operation Twist”…in a rare move, the Republican Congressional leadership yesterday sent a letter to Bernanke telling him that further Fed action could harm the economy and erode the dollar…the letter was signed by House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio), House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.), Senate Minority leader Mitch McConnel (R-Ky.) and Senator Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.)…they also wrote that Bernanke should resist further intervention and there’s no evidence additional monetary stimulus will create jobs or help the economy…the fact that members of Congress are taking aim at the Fed, rightly or wrongly, is another example of how politically and ideologically divided the U.S. is at the moment…

Greece is being blackmailed by the markets and Europe is not managing the crisis as quickly and as decisively as it should, Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos stated today…the Greek government, a victim of its own financial mismanagement and incompetence, will make announcements later today on austerity measures it’s discussing with its international lenders to save the country from bankruptcy, a government spokesman said…the writing in our view, however, appears to be on the wall…sooner or later, Greece will fall into bankruptcy…

One of the biggest challenges investors face in the junior resource market is knowing whether or not they can actually trust a company to do what it says it’s going to do…an excellent case in point is GoldQuest Mining (GQC, TSX-V) which we have followed closely at BMR for the past year or so…GoldQuest unquestionably has a high quality land package in the Dominican Republic where it has been exploring for a decade…it also holds a promising lead-zinc-Silver deposit in Spain with a significant 43-101 compliant resource…in February, we interviewed GQC Chairman Bill Fisher – highly respected in the industry – and he clearly laid out for us and our readers the GoldQuest game plan for the balance of 2011 which involved drilling of three different properties and steady news flow…as it turned out, drilling only took place at La Escandalosa…another phase of drilling was proposed for that property during the second half of the year, according to an April 19 news release from new President and CEO Julio Espaillat…needless to say, investors were really caught off guard Monday when GoldQuest announced a proposed merger with Takara Resources (TKK, TSX-V)…ultimately, the merger could work out well but valued GoldQuest at just under 14 cents (in our view, a very low-ball valuation for GQC) based on last Friday’s closing prices for GQC and TKK (16.5 cents and 8.5 cents, respectively)…GoldQuest closed at 15 cents yesterday while Takara finished at half that price, 7.5 cents…a GQC shareholder will receive 1.63 shares in TKK for each share of GQC…furthermore, Fisher brought up the possibility in Monday’s news release of a 1-for-4 rollback once the merger is approved, and a private placement financing of $6 million prior to the commencement of any drilling…while it may work out in the long run, this is indeed a bizarre turn of events for GoldQuest and certainly the last thing we had anticipated given what Fisher told us (and our readers) in the February interview…we’re disappointed with the ratio and we envision a situation where institutions will be lining up at the trough for a cheap $6 million financing, paper that they will later want to unload on retail investors…yes, sorry to say, but the retail investor is getting screwed here…GoldQuest shareholders are speaking quite loudly through the market this morning as GQC has dipped as low as 13 cents on CDNX volume of 350,000 shares…this is certainly not the only example of a company not carrying out what it stated it would do – this problem is widespread – which means investors must be especially careful and discerning…a good practice is to review several years of company news releases and look for consistency and follow-through…

The CDNX is sitting near important support…it’s off 7 points at 1721 as of 11:15 am Eastern…John’s updated CDNX chart shows critical support at 1700 and 1675…

We do have more interviews and stories to post over the next couple of days from Rouyn-Noranda…Richmont Mines (RIC, TSX) hit a new all-time high yesterday of $13.29…it’s currently up 3 cents at $12.98 after dipping as low as $12.73 this morning…Visible Gold Mines (VGD, TSX-V), exploring a very attractive land package in the immediate vicinity of the growing Wasamac deposit, is off half a penny at 37.5 cents…

Seafield Resources (SFF, TSX-V) has released positive results for the initial scoping level metallurgical testwork on its Miraflores property in the Quinchia District of Colombia…testwork was performed on 14 samples taken from five drill cores from the Miraflores deposit…the samples consisted of the Gold-bearing white breccia and rock flour breccia rock types associated with the Miraflores breccia pipe…the samples were combined into a single composite sample, with a weight of approximately 10 kilograms, to form a bulk sample for metallurgical testing….the testwork returned gravity recoveries as high as 94.3% for Gold and 62.3% for Silver…testing continues…a preliminary economic assessment for Miraflores is expected to be completed during the first quarter of next year…Seafield also reported this morning it expects to release more drill results from Dos Quebradas within the next four weeks…new President and CEO Carlos Lopez is doing an excellent job with this company…Seafield is up half a penny at 22 cents…

A regular reader brought to our attention a company yesterday by the name of Argex Mining (RGX, TSX-V)…the stock looks interesting simply from a technical point of view…we caution we have not had time to perform any significant due diligence on the company’s fundamentals…Argex claims it has adopted a simple and low-risk strategy for the scale-up of its proprietary process that allows it to produce high purity TiO2 directly from its 100% owned deposit, the La Blache Fe-Ti-V property located in the Manicouagan region here in Quebec – approximately 120 km northwest of the Baie-Comeau on the north shore of the St. Lawrence River…on May 18, RGX released a 43-101 resource estimate for La Blanche…the company stated, “It (the resource estimate) demonstrates that the La Blache Property is a significant titanium and vanadium resource and a high-grade iron resource. Importantly, the titanium dioxide ore grade is high compared with most major titanium ores currently being mined around the world, and the vanadium grades are higher than what was expected and that the homogeneity of the mineralization at East Hervieux and West Hervieux shows that orebody has great consistency that should work well with the process flow sheet for the hydrometallurgical plant developed by Process Research Ortech”…RGX has 89 million shares outstanding and reported working capital of $4 million as of June 30…below are two charts from John on RGX that are definitely interesting but we encourage our readers, as always, to perform their own due diligence…

16 Comments

  1. while your waiting for VGD to spark a fire, you may want to look at DEC. Uncle Joe has nothing to sell till after .30 on warrants. Visible gold in first 8 holes, assays expected in next 5 days. 2 rigs going. Also, rumored that 100 feet of visible gold pulled up in a hole yesterday. They had the model wrong last year and were drilling in the wrong place. They changed drilling location and now hitting Visible gold.

    Comment by dave — September 21, 2011 @ 7:30 am

  2. I dumped GQC, Ill make my money back elsewhere.

    Comment by Hugh — September 21, 2011 @ 7:51 am

  3. RE gqc… THE shareholders have to vote .. not knowing the % held Jon, do we have a chance to tell them nope!! hot happening?? isnt there some legal issues here to WRT the fact that the BOD is trying to scam us since the $$ amounts are way outta whack?? wonder what the GQC BOD and management get outta all this… talk abut stink!!!

    Comment by Jeremy — September 21, 2011 @ 8:09 am

  4. just called the company .. the IR guy is very busy go figure… I would suggest all call… this IS hiway robbery… on the outside looking in anyway!! the OSC shuld get involved??

    Comment by Jeremy — September 21, 2011 @ 8:13 am

  5. Jon/BMR

    What is happening with Kaminack, down to 3.60 this morning, a great buying opportunity on weakness? or is there something else? They keep announcing great drill results.
    thx

    Comment by GREG H — September 21, 2011 @ 8:34 am

  6. I would chalk it up to technical weakness…the 50-day SMA turned negative recently…the stock has now hit its advancing 200-day SMA where there should be support…not sure what John’s Fib.’s charts say…I’ll see if he can do an update on KAM for tomorrow…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — September 21, 2011 @ 8:48 am

  7. THANKS VERY MUCH JON!

    Comment by GREG H — September 21, 2011 @ 9:25 am

  8. HEY ALL… YUKON STOCKS GETTING HIT DUE TO NO MORE DRILLING RESULTS.. BAD DRILL SEASON… sorry also talked to to IR at GQC.. he seemed a bit nervous, and was trying to talk it up and that Bill Fisher is the driver. price was determined 3-6 months ago… consolidation will happen then a 6mil financing.. his name is Sebastian .. 60% ish are retail so we can vote it down if we want.. dead oney guys… am I the only one with dogs and pigs in my TFSA???? man…..

    Comment by Jeremy — September 21, 2011 @ 10:45 am

  9. Why the big drop on VGD and CQX? is there news out that has leaked?

    Comment by Ed — September 21, 2011 @ 11:55 am

  10. nice calls lately BMR.. wow.

    Comment by jeff — September 21, 2011 @ 12:00 pm

  11. Three things, Ed, as far as I see it…..the selling by Sheldon Inwentash in VGD since last week seems to have rattled a few people…there was technical selling and of course overall market weakness….unfortunate to say the least…..VGD falls, CQX goes with it…….

    Comment by Jon - BMR — September 21, 2011 @ 12:17 pm

  12. Re: VGD – this could be technical selling but the next time I see an insider dumping I sell as well:

    Sep 20/11 Sep 19/11 Inwentash, Sheldon Control or Direction Common Shares 10 – Disposition in the public market -28,000 $0.380
    Sep 20/11 Sep 16/11 Inwentash, Sheldon Control or Direction Common Shares 10 – Disposition in the public market -71,000 $0.382
    Sep 16/11 Sep 15/11 Inwentash, Sheldon Control or Direction Common Shares 10 – Disposition in the public market -142,500 $0.390
    Sep 15/11 Sep 14/11 Inwentash, Sheldon Control or Direction Common Shares 10 – Disposition in the public market -107,500 $0.418

    Comment by Nikolai — September 21, 2011 @ 12:48 pm

  13. What happened to VGD.V today? It was trashed!

    Comment by Jacquie — September 21, 2011 @ 12:55 pm

  14. Exactly my point, Nikolai….it does not inspire confidence. I will be asking Dallaire about Inwentash’s selling. As I wrote the other day, Inwentash holds shares in a ton of companies…..and I doubt that he does all or even most of his trading, so it’s possible he may not even be aware of this…..I remember in the case of Currie Rose, last fall, Pinetree sold a bunch of stock around 20 cents and investors got a little skittish….the stock backed off a bit and then it roared to nearly 50 cents, so it’s wise not to put too much emphasis on this kind of selling…..however, it unnerves some investors and creates anxiety in the market……it’s unfortunate because Richmont is at record highs and VGD is the best positioned company in the Wasamac area besides Richmont…..

    Comment by Jon - BMR — September 21, 2011 @ 12:57 pm

  15. BER gained back some grounds today and closed at 20 cents – up 2 cents. My sixth sense, it will still go up tomorrow but I have no clue how far it will go… Someone is trying to keep it low and scoop more shares in lower prices. This is my feeling of this stock for the last couple of days. The huge lot put at 23 cents today had stopped this one to go further after reaching 22 cents. I am still holding a position of this one. SFF closed at 22 cents and I am still in favor of this one. Nothing can go wrong if you hold it in low 20s level. GBB advanced to 33 cents in low volume and 2.5 cents advance does not mean anything to me. My buy low price remains 26 cents level. VGD and CQX had a big dump today and I believe that it will go back up soon… my sixth sense of this one still positive. SD … I have a feeling that it will drop below 2 cents soon…. better keep away from this one. 1.5 cents/ 2 cents will be the next buy/sell lot – if you are holding a position of this one, it does not matter unless you bought them at 2.5 cents…. Some people bought at over 10 cents and therefore, 1.5 cents or 2 cents value does not make a difference in your losses. My suggestion is to keep them. My other share TYP, closed at 75 cents and I am still keeping an eye on it…. My buy low price is reached.

    Comment by Theodore — September 21, 2011 @ 1:13 pm

  16. At BullMarketRun (BMR) we approach the handling of money from a biblical perspective and this is an important topic we will be sharing with our readers (and listeners) as the site continues to develop. It’s been over two years that your are saying that you will be sharing your biblical tricks on how to invest on the ventur. I THINK FOR MANY HERE THEY WILL NEED A MIRACLE TO REGAIN THERE MONEY. I think it’s time to talk about it now…. lol

    Comment by Andre — September 22, 2011 @ 6:42 am

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