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June 17, 2011

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold dropped as low as $1,522 overnight but has strengthened over the past couple of hours…as of 8:45 am Pacific, the yellow metal is up $9 an ounce at $1,538…Silver is 14 cents lower at $35.45…crude oil, which had technical support at $95, has slipped $1.52 to $93.43 while the U.S. Dollar Index is off half a point at 74.97…while the euro zone and the IMF try feverishly to nail down a bailout package for Greece, Greek President George Papandreou continues to fight political battles at home…he shuffled his cabinet this morning and replaced an unpopular finance minister…it looks increasingly unlikely that there is a willingness among the Greek population or the broad political support in that country to take the fiscal medicine necessary to avoid a hard sovereign debt default…U.S. consumer sentiment worsened more than expected in June on renewed concerns about the outlook for the economy, while worries about inflation eased modestly, according to the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan monthly survey released this morning…the IMF has cut its forecast for U.S. growth in 2011 for the second time in two months, warning that further setbacks to a recovery pose growing threats to the world economy, along with potential contagion from the European debt crisis…the U.S. economy will grow 2.5% this year and 2.7% in 2012, down from the 2.8% and 2.9% projected in April, the IMF said today, citing higher commodity prices and bad weather in the first quarter and a weak housing market…the Washington-based IMF now sees the world economy expanding 4.3% this year, down from 4.4% percent two months ago…it left a 4.5% forecast for next year unchanged…“Global activity is projected to slow in the second quarter of 2011, and then reaccelerate in the second half of the year,” the IMF said in an update of its World Economic Outlook report…”Greater-than-anticipated weakness in U.S. activity and renewed financial volatility from concerns about the depth of fiscal challenges in the euro area periphery pose greater downside risks”…while we focus almost exclusively on the TSX Venture Exchange (CDNX) at BMR, this morning John has a chart on the Dow that offers some encouragement…momentum indicators and the ADX all support a possible reversal which shows a more bullish investor psychology…

The CDNX is unchanged at 1889 and has touched its rising 300-day moving average (SMA) for the first time since July of last year…this important moving average has provided huge support for the CDNX in bull markets over the last decade…important market bottoms have occurred very soon after the Index has dropped slightly below its rising 300-day…John’s updated CDNX chart shows this is really a time to be bullish, not bearish…a reasonable expectation is that the CDNX will trade just marginally below its 300-day for a short period of time as part of the bottoming process…we must be patient…

Yesterday, we pointed out the solid drill results released just before the start of trading by Adventure Gold (AGE, TSX-V) and Mazorro Resources (MZO, TSX-V) from the Lapaska Gold Property 20 kilometres east of Val d’Or…MZO can earn up to a 70% interest in the project from AGE by incurring a total of $7.7-million in exploration expenditures, issuing 3 million shares of MZO, paying $250,000 in cash and an additional $2 million (in cash and shares) to AGE over the next six years…AGE will be the operator until MZO earns the 70-per-cent interest…Mazarro gained a nickel yesterday to 27 cents and jumped as high as 35 cents this morning…it’s looking good on the charts though it may need to consolidate a bit before potentially charging higher…it’s currently up another nickel cents at 32 cents and is one of the most active stocks on the CDNX…Lapaska looks interesting and the story probably has some legs with plenty of drill results still to come…Adventure Gold, meanwhile, continues to look very solid and is up 3 pennies at 56 cents…Visible Gold Mines (VGD, TSX-V) dropped as low as 20 cents this morning, where there is strong technical support, but has bounced back to trade at its high of the day…it’s currently off a penny at 22 cents…we have little interest in the company’s Silidor Property, especially after yesterday’s results, but we are immensely interested in VGD’s Joutel Property which is a joint venture with Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM, TSX)…VGD is making Joutel the focus of its exploration over the remainder of the year and understandably so…Joutel, a significant former producer, is to VGD what Granada was and still is to Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V)…in fact, the Joutel land package is more than 10 times the size of Granada and includes three major zones that were mined between the early 1970’s and early 1990’s…the operation was shut down prematurely by Agnico-Eagle which wanted to focus on development of its huge LaRonde Mine…Slow Stochastics on GBB are now at levels they were when the stock bottomed at 35 cents in March and May…the fundamentals are very positive, so enjoy this GBB “Rollback Sale” while it lasts…GBB is down half a penny at 38 cents on light volume…

2 Comments

  1. Guys, I have dumped 46,000 shares at 38.5 – 39 cents and am waiting for the one time slide at 37 cents. Buy at 48000 shares ….

    Comment by Theodore — June 17, 2011 @ 4:57 pm

  2. I think I picked up some of your GBB shares Theodore at .38 – hope they were lucky ones!

    Comment by Andrew — June 18, 2011 @ 2:57 pm

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