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Thanksgiving, America’s oldest tradition, has always been a very special day in the United States…in gratitude for God’s gift of freedom and “for all the great and various favors which He hath been pleased to confer upon us,” George Washington made Thanksgiving his first proclamation for the new nation in 1789, and it is one Americans are privileged to renew each year…

A very special Happy Thanksgiving to our American friends on this 27th of November, 2014…

This is a slightly abbreviated version of Morning Musings due to the Thanksgiving holiday and the slower Canadian markets as a result…Gold was under some mild pressure last night but has recouped most of its losses…as of 7:30 am Pacific, bullion is down $4 an ounce at $1,194…Silver is off 31 cents at $16.23…Copper is flat at $3.01…Crude Oil has fallen another $2.38 a barrel to $71.31 as OPEC has decided not to cut output from 30 million barrels a day…OPEC members are clearly trying to put the “squeeze” on North American producers after the success of the shale revolution…the U.S. Dollar Index is up more than one-tenth of a point to 87.82…

Banks including Barclays and Wells Fargo, are facing potentially heavy losses on an $850 million loan made to 2 Oil and gas companies, as reported by The Financial Times this morning, in a sign of how the dramatic slide in the price of Oil is beginning to reverberate through the wider economy (negatively in some ways but also positively in others)…details of the loan emerged as OPEC delegates gathered in Vienna to address the growing glut in the supply of Oil (which they’ve decided to do nothing about at the moment)…

Americans on this Thanksgiving can be grateful for many things, including lower gas prices and a turnaround in public finances…the budget deficit has fallen below 3% of GDP for the first time since 2007…the deficit for fiscal year 2014 has come in at just 2.8% of GDP, far below peak recession levels of more than 10%, as tax revenues recovered and spending fell in real terms…a 5% cut in defense spending, though, is likely going to have to be reversed given the current geopolitical environment which will probably become even more dangerous going forward…interest payments on accumulated U.S. debt may also cause some budgetary problems in the years ahead once interest rates head appreciably higher…so the U.S. certainly isn’t out of a fiscal bottleneck just yet despite the recent reduction in annual deficits…entitlement programs are also a major issue to deal with in upcoming budget battles…

Today’s Equity Markets

Asia

China’s Shanghai Composite hit a 3-year peak for the 5th straight session as investors shook off some weak data…October industrial profits fell 2.1% on year, compared to a 0.4% gain in the previous month…

Japan’s Nikkei tracked currency movements and fell 135 points overnight…

Europe

European markets are up moderately in late trading overseas…European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker unveiled a 300 billion euro plan to boost the euro zone economy which needs all the help it can get…

Europe’s recovery faces 3 risks – unemployment and a lack of productivity and structural reforms, according to ECB President Mario Draghi…in a speech  delivered to the Finnish Parliament today, Draghi conceded that the euro area economic outlook “is surrounded by a number of downside risks…the recovery will likely be dampened by high unemployment, sizeable unutilized capacity, and the necessary balance sheet adjustments…inflation in the euro zone remains very low (and) meanwhile, we are facing continuously sluggish money and credit dynamics.”

On the data front today, inflation in Germany came in at 0.5% in November, its lowest level since February 2010…the country has been hit by stumbling growth and there is a lingering threat of deflation…

North America

U.S. markets of course are closed today, and tomorrow will be a shortened session…in Toronto, through the first hour of trading, the TSX has retreated 40 points while the Venture is off 5 points at 766, weighed down by weakness in energy…

Garibaldi Resources (GGI, TSX-V) came out with news at the close of yesterday’s session, announcing the discovery of a high-grade structure 150 m north of Silver Eagle bonanza grade hole SE-14-01…this new area, which may extend this system system further north than previously anticipated, will be drill-tested in the coming days…the shallowness of high-grade Silver mineralization at Silver Eagle, and how it strikes north-south for about 3 km beyond the contiguous Reales target, underscores the tremendous exploration upside that both Dr. Peter Megaw and Dr. Craig Gibson see at GGI‘s Rodadero Project…both have been instrumental in other big Mexican discoveries…of course in addition to Silver Eagle and Reales, there are 9 other high-priority targets at Rodadero where surface mineralization transitions to high-grade Gold, Silver and base metals trending eastward…we’ll have more on Rodadero by Monday…GGI is up a penny at 21 cents as of 7:30 am Pacific…

Dow 2+ Year Weekly Chart

With the American holiday, it’s a good time to subject the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq to technical “check-ups” to see how the final month of the year may unfold…

Importantly, the Dow has recently broken above an RSI(14) downtrend line in place for all of this year…this increases the likelihood of the RSI(14) pushing even higher, probably into overbought territory, and that means a bullish index going into year-end…the next measured Fib. resistance level for the Dow is 18548 – 720 points or 4% above where it is now…there will be some volatility along the way but John’s Fib. levels have proven to be very accurate…

S&P 500 2+ Year Weekly Chart

Since 1950, the average December gain for the S&P 500 has been 1.7%…there’s no reason to believe why this December is not going to be at least as strong for the S&P 500 given its current technical posture…

A breakout above Fib. resistance at 2035 has been confirmed…like the Dow, the S&P has also pushed above an RSI(14) downtrend line…

Nasdaq 3-Year Weekly Chart

Interestingly, the Nasdaq has climbed back within an uptrend support line that was briefly broken during the October sell-off…support held at 4100…this chart suggests the Nasdaq could be on its way to a new all-time high with the next Fib. measured resistance at just above 5700…

Note:  John and Jon both hold share positions in GGI.