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September 4, 2014

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded between $1,266 and $1,278 so far today…as of 8:30 am Pacific, bullion is up $1 an ounce at $1,270…Silver is off 2 cents at $19.14…Copper has added a penny to $3.15…Crude Oil is 61 cents lower at $94.93 while the U.S. Dollar Index has jumped three-quarters of a point to 83.59 thanks in part to the euro hitting a 14-month low…

The European Central Bank acted boldly today in an effort to stimulate the euro zone’s fragile recovery and boost inflation…whether these measures will actually work, and what impact if any they may have on Gold, are good questions…the ECB lowered all of its interest rates to fresh record lows, took its rate on bank deposits further into negative territory, and also announced two new programs under which it will buy asset-backed securities and covered bonds issued by euro zone banks…

“This is quite complex package of measures,” ECB President Mario Draghi stated in a news conference following the announcement.  “The purpose is very different from previous programs…the aim is to increase the measures that produce credit-easing…and also to significantly stir the size of our balance sheet towards the dimensions it used to have at the beginning of 2012.”

Draghi said the ECB has downgraded its euro zone growth forecasts for 2014 and 2015, to 0.9% and 1.6%, respectively…he added that growth in the second quarter had been weaker than expected and that incoming third quarter data suggested the economic recovery was slowing…he also said the ECB did not intend to cut interest rates any further…

Today’s Equity Markets

Asia

Asian markets were mixed today…China’s Shanghai Composite hit another 14-week high, adding 18 points to 2307…Japan’s Nikkei average, meanwhile, took a breather and snapped a 3-day winning streak after ending at 7-month highs in the past two sessions…

Europe

European markets strengthened after the ECB news and finished sharply higher today…

North America

The Dow is up 45 points as of 8:30 am Pacific

The pace of growth in the U.S. services sector rose in August to its highest level since 2005, according to an industry report released this morning…the Institute for Supply Management said its services index rose to 59.6 last month from 58.7 in July…the August reading was the highest since August 2005 and topped economists’ forecasts for 57.5, according to a Reuters survey…

Private sector job creation in the U.S. slowed modestly in August, according to a report this morning from ADP and Moody’s Analytics…today’s number fell slightly short of expectations, showing employment growth of 204,000 positions, off a touch from the downwardly revised 212,000 in July and well off the 297,000 in June…

The Labor Department tomorrow will give the latest reading on the important non-farm payrolls growth, seen at up 220,000 in August. Recent improving U.S. economic data suggests the Federal Reserve will continue to wind down its quantitative easing of monetary policy by the end of this year, and will likely begin to raise interest rates sometime in 2015.. The Labor Department is set to report job figures for August on Friday; net job growth has exceeded 200,000 for six straight months through July.

Yesterday’s Federal Reserve “beige book” survey was the third straight report in which all of the Fed’s district banks reported either modest, moderate or improving economic growth…it spotlighted improvement in consumer spending, tourism and manufacturing from mid-July through late-August…retailers reported better sales during the early back-to-school shopping season…the report comes ahead of the next FOMC meeting set for Sept. 16-17…scant evidence of wage pressures should give the Fed greater breathing room as it considers when to raise rates…

The TSX is flat as of 8:30 am Pacific while the Venture is off 2 points at 1008 (see updated charts below)…

TSX 5-Year Weekly Chart Update 

This TSX 5-year weekly chart shows an amazing run – a gain of 33% – since the low of 11759 at the end of June last year…as you can see below, the Index has remained within an impressive upsloping channel since the summer of 2013 and has repeatedly tested the top of that channel this year…given the continuing very strong momentum, watch for a potential near-term breakout above that channel, though it’s possible that could turn out to be a “false” breakout which is then followed by a correction to unwind overbought conditions…

TSX22

Venture 5-Year Weekly Chart Update

The Venture’s 5-year weekly chart shows a very consistent and sustainable pattern with RSI(14) continuing to climb a trend line but well below overbought levels at 52%…note also how the rising 200-day moving average (SMA), currently at 992, has provided rock-solid support throughout the entire year after the Index finally pushed above this SMA at the beginning of January…the next measured Fib. resistance levels are 1058 and 1119…

CDNX315

Integra Gold Corp. (ICG, TSX-V) Update

Integra Gold (ICG, TSX-V) is one of the Venture volume leaders so far this morning, up 4 cents at 29 cents through the first two hours of trading after the release of some interesting news…

ICG has entered into an asset purchase agreement to acquire the Sigma-Lamaque milling facility and mines, adjacent to the company’s Val d’Or Lamaque Project (this reminds us a lot of the Discovery Ventures‘ (DVN, TSX-V) situation when it cut a very attractive deal earlier this year in similar circumstances for the Max mine and mill facilities in southeast B.C.)…ICG is acquiring these assets from the court-appointed receiver for Century Mining Corporation…the aggregate purchase price is $7.55 million, comprising $1.8 million in cash and 25 million common shares valued at $5.75 million (based on a share price of 23 cents)…the transaction has received conditional approval from the Venture Exchange and has been authorized by the Superior Court of Quebec, who granted a vesting order pursuant to the receivership process…closing is scheduled for next month…

Great deal for $7.55 million which is why the ICG share price is up this morning…should improve the economics of this project…the assets to be acquired by Integra include a permitted 2,200 tonne per day milling complex and tailings facility adjacent to Lamaque South, as well as permitted underground infrastructure including three portals, mechanical shop, office, dry, equipment, and all mining concessions and mineral claims on the past-producing property…

Discovery Ventures Inc. (DVN, TSX-V) Update

Speaking of DVN, it continues to accelerate and is now threatening to push through chart resistance at 40 cents as you can see below…DVN is up half a penny at 40.5 cents as of 8:30 am Pacific

DVN26

Decade Resources Ltd. (DEC, TSX-V) Update

Encouraging drill hole result yesterday from Decade Resources‘ (DEC, TSX-V) Bow Property near Stewart, but what was disappointingly missing was a detailed breakdown of the 49.6-m interval that DEC reported as 15.25 g/t Au (from 44.6 to 94.2 m)…only one shorter section was provided – 12.2 m grading 56.7 g/t AuDEC opened at 23 cents after the pre-market halt, closed up 4.5 cents on volume of more than 5 million shares (all exchanges), but has backed off this morning…as of 8:30 am Pacific, DEC is off 2.5 cents at 19 cents…

Results from five more holes are pending…we had a request from a few readers for a DEC chart…this 3-year weekly shows a band of resistance between the Fib. 21 cent level and chart resistance at 25 cents…strong support at 15 cents where there was a confirmed breakout…as always, perform your own due diligence…

DEC3

Ascot Resources Ltd. (AOT, TSX-V)

Ascot Resources (AOT, TSX-V) continues to drill aggressively with three rigs at its Premier Property that covers more than 100 sq. km near Stewart and includes the past producing Premier high-grade mine…this is a potentially very prolific fundamental play in our view…historic work and recent Ascot drilling indicate a system where mineralization is focused in a structural zone with widths ranging from 30 m to 150 m, with a known strike length of over 1,600 m and a dip length of up to 1,200 m…

AOT climbed for 12 out of 13 sessions between August 11 and August 27, so the pullback from a multi-year high of $2.40 August 28 is not surprising…temporarily overbought conditions are unwinding and support is holding around the $1.90 level which was previous Fib. resistance…

AOT7

Note:  Jon holds a share position in DVN.

7 Comments

  1. Why has GGI SP dropped so much?

    Comment by leslie — September 4, 2014 @ 8:24 am

  2. Leslie, GGI continues to trade very normally between support and resistance in the context of a primary uptrend…given developments on the ground in Mexico, and up at the Sheslay district, the fundamentals are in place for another upside breakout (again, the continuation of the overall uptrend) – not one but two triggers, so don’t be surprised if we wake up one morning very soon and see this surge…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — September 4, 2014 @ 9:22 am

  3. all of the ventures gains last week wiped out in three sessions this week… gotta have nervs of steel

    Comment by TOny T — September 4, 2014 @ 10:56 am

  4. GGI closes at $0.255 Barchart rates 48% sell

    Comment by leslie — September 4, 2014 @ 2:20 pm

  5. Leslie, “Johnchart” has proven to be much more accurate than “Barchart” on GGI, and not only do RSI(2) extreme oversold levels exist, but GGI merely did today what it has done on two other occasions in 2014 – closed at its uptrend support line (going back to mid 2013) on the long-term chart, coinciding with Fib. support, and in this instance also at the support of the rising 100-day SMA…from the uptrend line have ensued major upside moves…measured Fib. resistance levels are in the high 30’s and around 60 cents…will post this tomorrow…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — September 4, 2014 @ 5:33 pm

  6. More exciting news on GeoMega on a new gold discovery never drilled surounded by major deposits. Please visit the Geomega Resources web site.

    Comment by Dan — September 4, 2014 @ 5:56 pm

  7. Thank you Jon

    Comment by leslie — September 4, 2014 @ 6:20 pm

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