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August 22, 2014

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded between $1,274 and $1,284 so far today…as of 8:00 am Pacific, bullion is up $1 an ounce at $1,277 after yesterday’s weakness that took the metal to a 2-month low…Silver is down 7 cents at $19.34…Copper has rallied another 2 pennies to $3.20…Crude Oil is 70 cents lower at $93.26 while the U.S. Dollar Index is up one-fifth of a point at 82.42…

Gold posted its steepest decline in over a month yesterday as investors left the market ahead of this morning’s speech by Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen at a gathering of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming…most investors aren’t expecting a rate increase until mid-2015 at the earliest…however, some Fed officials argued for accelerating that timetable during their July policy meeting, according to minutes released Wednesday, and that put some immediate pressure on Gold

Later in the day, ECB President Mario Draghi will also speak at Jackson Hole, as the conference dominates a day with no major U.S. data or corporate earnings due for release…

Regardless of where interest rates are going, our view is that geopolitical events, including war declared on the United States and the West by the ISIS terrorist group, will provide a critical floor of support for Gold and may in fact drive it beyond levels anyone is predicting over the next 12 months…though this doesn’t fit with President Obama’s current world view, the U.S. may have to reverse course and dramatically increase military expenditures before his term is over…ISIS makes al-Qaeda look soft…this new wave of jihadists is likely the most sophisticated and well-funded terrorist organization the world has ever seen…the West also has a belligerent Russia to deal with…tensions between Ukraine and Russia have heightened once again, as Reuters has reported that around 70 Russian “aid” trucks have entered Ukraine without permission from Kiev…

Today’s Equity Markets

Asia

China’s Shanghai Composite gained 10 points overnight to close the week at 2241…meanwhile, a 9-session winning streak for Japan’s Nikkei average came to an end as the Nikkei slipped 47 points…

Europe

European markets are down slightly in late trading overseas…

North America

The Dow is off 34 points as of 8:00 am Pacific…yesterday, the Dow returned to its perch above 17,000 for the first time since July 29 while the S&P 500 hit yet another new all-time high…the TSX is off 51 points while the Venture is down 2 points at 1000 through the first 90 minutes of trading…

Venture 6-Month Daily Chart Update 

Earlier this week we pointed out how the Venture’s RSI(14) on the 6-month daily chart had broken out above a downtrend line in place since early July…in addition, buy pressure was picking up as confirmed by the CMF…those were key technical developments, and yesterday was also important as the Venture staged a late day reversal and closed at its highest level of the month on a day when Gold experienced its worst day in a month…

Today or in the next few trading sessions, we’ll see if the Venture can climb above its short-term downtrend line and also confirm a breakout above Fib. resistance at 1001…it’s increasingly looking like 990 was the bottom of a mini-pullback that started in early July with the Index now preparing to finally accelerate to the upside…

CDNX299

Garibaldi Resources Corp. (GGI, TSX-V) Update:  Discovery of “New Mineral Camp” For GGI?

The potential scale and importance of Garibaldi Resources‘ (GGI, TSX-V) shallow high-grade discovery at its Rodadero North Project in central Sonora State, Mexico, is becoming increasingly apparent after fresh information this morning…as Phase 2 drilling continues, more high-grade surface sample results from Rodadero point to the distinct possibility of a significant extension of the Silver Eagle discovery to the south…while surface samples obviously aren’t necessarily representative of mineralization over a broad area, these ones are supported by GGI’s hyperspectral ‘hot spot’ signatures…in fact, it was the hyperspectral data followed by high-grade sampling numbers that led to the drilling discovery at Silver Eagle…assays from drill core ran even higher…

Now, GGI has reported that surface sampling from two separate areas up to 3 km south of SE-14-01 has returned high-grade Silver assays consistent with those seen at Silver Eagle, in addition to increasing base metal values including lead grades as high as a whopping 15% (average values from nearly two dozen samples were 114 g/t Ag and 4.9% Pb)…this is a significant development, so it’s not surprising that GGI also stated this morning that the exploration program at Rodadero is being expanded…

High-grade surface samples and hyperspectral data at Silver Eagle ultimately led to high-grade drill results…it would be reasonable to expect the same as Garibaldi tracks the Silver Eagle discovery further to the south…Phase 1 drilling also indicated that the mineralized system at Silver Eagle, while open in all directions, is actually widening to the south…

East and southeast of Silver Eagle is a Gold-Silver environment with encouraging hyperspectral signatures and many high-grade values from surface sampling that need to be followed up with drilling…

Garibaldi to date has identified 11 targets along a 10-km distance at Rodadero North, with a discovery at the first target drilled…the market has a hunger for a major new discovery somewhere, and Garibaldi clearly has a chance to deliver one at Rodadero which is being considered a “new mineral camp” by President & CEO Steve Regoci as you’ll see him comment in Part 5 of our interview – simply click on the arrow to view this segment (less than 90 seconds)…

GGI Chart Update

Technically, GGI appears to be gearing up for a major breakout above a bullish downsloping flag that started to form last month as you can see on this 6-month daily chart…RSI(14) at 53% continues to climb a trendline and has room to move much higher…GGI is up half a penny at 29 cents as of 8:00 am Pacific

GGI

Endeavor Mining Corp. (EDV, TSX)

The chart for Endeavor Mining Corp. (EDV, TSX) is another excellent illustration of how the Gold stock sector has really turned the corner, from a technical perspective, and is positioned to do exceptionally well over both the short and longer-term after a horrendous 2013…

Below you’ll see a bullish cup-with-handle pattern in EDV…the ultimate outcome in such a scenario is often a breakout above the cup resistance which in this case is the $1 level…EDV’s 200-day moving average (SMA), currently at 75 cents, reversed to the upside earlier this year, confirming an important trend change…

The 50-day SMA (87 cents) is providing strong support…EDV is up a penny at 92 cents as of 8:00 am Pacific

EDV1

Fjordland Exploration Inc. (FEX, TSX-V)

Yesterday, we wrote about an opportunity that may exist with Sego Resources (SGZ, TSX-V)…another overlooked exploration story in the British Columbia southern interior is the Dillard Copper-Gold Porphyry Project located between Merritt and Princeton…Fjordland Exploration (FEX, TSX-V) and Sumac Mines Ltd., a subsidiary of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd. of Japan, have (interestingly) increased their planned diamond drilling program for 2014 to 4,500 m from the originally planned 2,500 m as announced yesterday…

As of the middle of this month, 2,500 m of drilling was completed at Dillard West (assays pending)…in addition, over 2,000 m of trenching was carried out at Dillard East where the additional drilling will test anomalous zones…

Below is a 5-year weekly FEX chart from John…over the past two years, the stock has traded in a horizontal basing pattern between 1 cent and 4 cents…strong support appears to have formed at 2 cents where FEX closed yesterday…as always, perform your own due diligence…

FEX1

Note:  John and Jon both hold share positions in GGI.

21 Comments

  1. Hi Jon

    Regoci states, ” that’s why an awful lot of companies are approaching us right now”…what do you make of that? Do you think he would be interested in a buyout?… joint ventures?…
    Thanks for your coverage and comments on the many companies you cover.I really enjoy your site.

    Bryan

    Comment by bryan — August 22, 2014 @ 7:47 am

  2. What I make of that Brian, is that there is some serious interest in what’s unfolding at Rodadero, and that this is certainly on the radar screen of some big players down there…keep in mind, GGI did a deal with PZG (NYSE) several years ago so they have the credibility of identifying a valuable resource in Mexico, and they’ve got Gibson and Megaw on their side…if there are curious players looking at Rodadero right now, imagine what may happen if GGI pulls some more drill holes similar or even better than Phase 1 as this builds out to the south and the east…the evidence right now is very supportive of a large system at Rodadero…these kind of surface and near surface grades are being fed from somewhere…a lot of possibilities and geological questions that will be answered in due course…this is quickly turning into one of the most exciting exploration plays in the market, it’s only going to intensify IMHO…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — August 22, 2014 @ 7:56 am

  3. Gentlemen,

    Any understanding on the chart for CXB, the prices have been going up with “Money Flow” reducing.

    TIA

    Comment by Bgr — August 22, 2014 @ 10:24 am

  4. Jon

    Have you had any contact with Asburton or Alix?, are they still players in the Sheslay.
    thanks

    Comment by Greg — August 22, 2014 @ 11:03 am

  5. Hi Bgr
    The CMF calculation requires a “MONEY FLOW MULTIPLIER”(MFM) which focuses on the level of the close relative to the high-low range for a given period(Day, Week, Month). With this formula a stock could gap down and close significantly lower, but the MFM would rise if the close was above the mid point of the high-low range, and vice versa a gap up could result in the MFM moving down.
    If you look at the daily chart of CXB, on Aug11/14, CXB gapped up at the open to 8c, rose to 9c then fell to close at 7.5c. The resultant CMF reading was approx -.25 even though the close was up for the day. Now compare with the weekly chart, the CMF readings have all been positive since the beginning of May.
    When a daily chart shows one or more gaps within the CMF period then the CMF readings cannot be trusted….use the weekly chart instead.

    Hope this helps

    Comment by John BMR — August 22, 2014 @ 11:20 am

  6. Wondering if you guys have been looking at TUO? Stock as really started moving with a lot of big buys…

    Comment by Mark — August 22, 2014 @ 11:29 am

  7. Also thanx for the great coverage of GGI, really love the stock and expect big things out of it. But am wondering what it will take for the market to catch on? When will volume pick up? Just seems to always plod along…

    Comment by Mark — August 22, 2014 @ 11:38 am

  8. Well, September is right around the corner. Some stocks have been moving higher, others have not. Let’s see if buying pressure appears next week. I am expecting a great September-October for the Venture.

    Comment by chris — August 22, 2014 @ 12:54 pm

  9. Jon/John; Venture closes at 1005 pts. Could this be considered a confirmed breakout?

    Comment by Tony T — August 22, 2014 @ 1:37 pm

  10. her(tsx)heron resources tor and hrr just merged I suggest bmr take a look at this new merged co regards walter emond

    Comment by walter emond — August 23, 2014 @ 1:23 am

  11. 1005 and looking good as we have gotten thru the Summer Doldrums…..just over 1 month left in this Quarter, so, we should have a great September…..some stocks may start to move in the next week or two and companies will start putting out news in early September…..1050?

    Comment by STEVEN1 — August 23, 2014 @ 7:51 am

  12. Hello BMR- I too have enjoyed your coverage and have noted that GGI has been a favourite of yours for some time, and is involved in what seems to be a very exciting play in Mexico. I wonder when you guys first got involved with GGI, how much of your interest in GGI was generated by their Mexico assets, versus the Grizzly property?

    Comment by Terry — August 23, 2014 @ 2:32 pm

  13. Terry, what initially got us investigating GGI was actually the Sheslay situation in May of last year when Bernier and his group acquired the option (adjoining the Grizzly) from Firesteel. For Dirk Tempelman-Kluit to speak so highly of this area, after researching over 150 other properties around the world, it demanded our immediate attention and due diligence as Dirk is one of the best in the business. From May of last year through the summer, we conducted extensive DD on GGI and also learned a great deal about the potential of their Mexican holdings. The combination of both the Grizzly and Mexico made this a no-brainer in our view and both situations have very explosive potential. I believe there is little doubt now that GGI is going to have a major discovery on its hands at either the Grizzly or in Mexico (Rodadero the most likely candidate), perhaps both.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — August 23, 2014 @ 2:56 pm

  14. Thanks John for your in depth reply. Will study further along these lines & check out StockCharts.com for more insights.

    Regards,
    Bgr

    Comment by Bgr — August 23, 2014 @ 10:10 pm

  15. Mark, I guess you missed our comments on TUO last Tuesday when it was sitting at 5.5 cents…we may have an updated chart tomorrow…it more than doubled since then to Friday’s close of 13 cents…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — August 24, 2014 @ 6:23 am

  16. Why do you view Rodadero as the most likely to be a major discovery has something happened or failed to happen at the Grizzly that has given you doubt?

    Comment by Ivan — August 24, 2014 @ 9:08 am

  17. Ivan, I stated Rodadero was most likely for a major discovery among GGI’s Mexico projects – that has become rather obvious; the Grizzly speaks for itself – in fact I think the odds there have increased substantially. Has something happened? Yes, I believe so. I don’t know specifically, but we’re of the opinion that GGI has carefully reviewed an enormous amount of data from not just the Grizzly, but adjoining properties, and have formed some new geological interpretations that could have game-changing implications once the drill bit starts turning. Independent geologists we’ve spoken with that know the area well are of the view that Grizzly Central represents the motherlode of the Sheslay system. Regoci’s comments re: the Grizzly in our interview were quite emphatic, I’m sure you’ll agree.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — August 24, 2014 @ 9:52 am

  18. Hey Jon… Actually I didn’t miss your coverage of TUO a few days ago, I bought in because of that, only a small position though and I’m thinking of maybe increasing it… TUO posted a few more photos on there website of the new Tuck zone and guess was wondering how closely you guys here were following it. If you thought the buzz was justified.. Thanx

    Comment by Mark — August 24, 2014 @ 10:43 am

  19. Hi Mark, we’ve been tracking TUO since last year, they hold a lot of ground in B.C. and the excitement over this latest news – the discovery of the Tuck zone just a few km south of Brucejack – is justified IMHO. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. Speculative of course but this could deliver some drama.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — August 24, 2014 @ 4:46 pm

  20. Bedrocan starts trading this a.m. BED.V should move up quickly. GGI looking very strong. Richard l

    Comment by richard l — August 24, 2014 @ 6:21 pm

  21. Hey Jon… thanx for the reply regarding TUO.

    Comment by Mark — August 25, 2014 @ 5:40 am

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