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Commodities, and Economic & Political Trends Impacting
The Resource Sector & Equity Markets
 

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March 25, 2014

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold, trading at a five-week low, has bounced between $1,306 and $1,320 so far today…as of 7:45 am Pacific, bullion is up $5 an ounce at $1,315…Silver is 20 cents higher at $20.13…Copper is up a nickel to $2.99…Crude Oil is off 46 cents at $99.14 while the U.S. Dollar Index is up more than one-tenth of a point to 80.07…

Eugen Weinberg, head of commodity research at Commerzbank, said the latest stretch of weakness for Gold “is due no doubt to further profit-taking after net long positions in Gold were increased for the sixth week running in the week to March 18. At 121,100 contracts, they are currently at their highest level since the end of November 2012.”

Gold’s recent drop should not be unsettling to investors…in fact, it should be viewed in the context of a normal, healthy pullback after a more than 15% advance since the December low…the 50 and 200-day moving averages (SMA’s), along with a Fib. 50% retracement level, coincide around $1,300…since May of last year, Gold has also been constructing a bullish cup-with-handle pattern which remains valid as long as bullion doesn’t close below $1,270 where there is also strong Fib. and chart support…understanding volatility and learning how to handle it is key to making money and wise decisions in the market…while Gold is down nearly 6% from its high earlier this month, and the TSX Gold Index has plummeted 11% in just six trading sessions, the Venture Exchange has held up extremely well in recent sessions – it’s down just 2.6% from its March high – though some nervous nellies have made some foolish mistakes in a few of the higher quality opportunities we follow…the Venture has confirmed beyond any reasonable doubt that it’s in the early stages of a new bull market (support areas are clearly defined), so the strategy in such an environment is to embrace weakness, not be frightened by it…

Today’s Markets

Asia

China’s Shanghai Composite eked out a third straight session gain overnight, adding a point to close at 2067…just last week, the Index had fallen below 2000 (1974) and the Chinese government has made it quite clear that they are considering accelerating fiscal stimulus though the exact timing of that is uncertain…new stimulus measures from China would be bullish for commodities…a 6-month daily chart for the Shanghai Composite shows a market in a recovery phase after once again successfully testing long-term support between 1950 and 2000…


Japan’s Nikkei slipped 52 points overnight on profit-taking following a nearly 2% rally Monday…sentiment was hurt after Bank of Japan deputy governor Kikuo Iwata stated that foreign investors have yet to be convinced of Japan’s resolve to end deflation…

Europe

European markets are up sharply in late trading overseas, thanks in part to expectations of fresh stimulus out of China to help reverse a recent slowdown…fresh economic data released this morning points to continued upward momentum in the Germany economy…

North America

The Dow is up 67 points as of 7:45 am Pacificsales of new U.S. single-family homes fell more than expected and hit a five-month low in February, pointing to continued weakness in the housing market…however, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose to 82.3 in March, up sharply from February’s 78.3 reading, showing greater confidence in the economic outlook…

The TSX has gained 21 points while the Venture is 3 points higher 1022…

Long-term investors take note…Magor Corp. (MCC, TSX-V) reported Q3 2014 results this morning with the highest quarterly revenue in company history, $1.1 million, while gross margins increased to 62.9% from 27.1% in Q3 2013…Magor continues to steadily advance its business model, though not as rapidly as some impatient investors would like…significant growth is beginning to kick in from the company’s recently launched Aerus cloud-based services…Aerus, which is enabling people to interact with video in new ways, has successfully completed trials and is into implementation with a number of partners, and the Aerus service delivery platform has recently been enhanced to provide greater reach and options to the end user with support for Windows Operating Systems…MCC has the management and technical expertise to carve out a niche in a competitive market environment with an excellent opportunity to reach the significant milestone of cash flow break-even during fiscal 2015 (MCC’s 2014 fiscal year ends April 30)…MCC is off half a penny at 29.5 cents as of 7:45 am Pacific

North Arrow Minerals Inc. (NAR, TSX-V) Update

Investors looking for opportunities and action in the diamond exploration sphere should perform their due diligence on North Arrow Minerals (NAR, TSX-V) which has some enticing opportunities as 2014 progresses…NAR is led by an all-star management team, it’s well-financed and active on several fronts…a discovery late last year at the company’s early-stage Pikoo Project in Saskatchewan also holds great promise…the stock has exceptional support in the 60’s, as you can see in this 1-year chart from John, and note the consistent and strong accumulation in NAR over the last five months…NAR is up a penny at 74 cents as of 7:45 am Pacific


CMC Metals Ltd. (CMB, TSX-V)

CMC Metals (CMB, TSX-V) recently strengthened its management team (an overdue step) and appears to be turning the corner with mining finally underway at the Radcliff Property in California (CMC currently holds a 50% interest in the project)…operational plans at Radcliff entail producing a minimum of 2,000 tons of ore monthly for shipment to CMC’s recently permitted Bishop mill…the Bishop mill is expected to be functional in June…construction of a new adit toward a potential high-grade zone at Radcliff is also in the works…

Technically, CMC is looking stronger than it has a long time which also reflects the “new” market that we’re now in…the 200-day moving average (SMA) recently reversed to the upside, ending a decline that started in 2011…below is a 1.5-year weekly chart from John…CMC is up a penny at 8.5 cents as of 7:45 am Pacific…as always, perform your own due diligence…


Fission Uranium Corp. (FCU, TSX-V) Updated Chart

More stellar results from Patterson Lake South gave Fission Uranium (FCU, TSX-V) another boost yesterday as the stock continues to advance toward a Fib. measured resistance level…below is a 9-month weekly chart from John…RSI(14) is in overbought territory but momentum may keep it there for a while longer…FCU is unchanged at $1.66 through the first 75 minutes of trading…


Aldrin Resource Corp. (ALN, TSX-V)

Aldrin (ALN, TSX-V) announced commencement of drilling this morning at the company’s Triple M uranium project adjacent to Fission’s discovery…the program is planned for up to 4,000 metres and is testing coincident geological, structural, gravity, basement conductor, magnetic and radon anomalies…ALN, which fell from a high of 17 cents last summer to as low as 6 cents last month, has been hampered in the market over the last number of months due to significant share dilution but at least the company is in a position to carry out some major work at Triple M which does hold promise…

Yesterday, ALN announced it has arranged yet another financing – 5 million units at 8 cents per unit…with over 110 million shares outstanding, ALN will need to deliver results on the ground in order to overcome chart resistance…ALN is off half a penny at 12 cents as of 7:45 am Pacific


Note: John, Jon and Terry do not hold share positions in NAR, FCU, ALN or CMB.  Jon holds a share position in MCC.


5 Comments

  1. Someone buying into VVN’s story!

    Comment by bar — March 25, 2014 @ 10:10 am

  2. Do you still follow gbb.v?

    Comment by Ron Renaud — March 25, 2014 @ 5:29 pm

  3. We continue to keep an eye on GBB, like many other situations – made a comment regarding GBB a couple of weeks ago in the comments section after a discussion with Frank.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — March 26, 2014 @ 3:41 am

  4. Jon, do you think RBW is already finished?

    Comment by Theodore — March 26, 2014 @ 7:23 pm

  5. Theodore, many companies have risen from the ashes, would be a mistake to count anyone out, especially in a much better market environment as we’re seeing in 2014.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — March 26, 2014 @ 8:33 pm

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