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December 24, 2013

20 Venture Situations To Watch Closely

6:15 am Pacific

The Venture has come through tax-loss selling season in excellent shape with its downtrend line from 2011 on the 3-year weekly chart acting as rock-solid support as expected.  Since late October, after finally breaking above the downtrend line, this previous stiff resistance has given the Venture impressive support through the pressures of a significant drop in the Gold price combined with December’s typical tax-loss selling in a down year.

Now the fun begins.  As John’s 5-day chart shows, the Venture’s turnaround started late in the trading session last Thursday and accelerated with yesterday’s 9-point gain (refer to Sunday’s charts for the bigger picture view and the important levels the Index needs to cross to confirm the strong upside move we believe is brewing).

20 Venture Plays That Could Excel In 2014

This is by no means a complete list of the most exciting opportunities we currently see on the Venture, but it should be a useful guide for our readers as they carry out their own due diligence over the holidays.  A common denominator with each of these companies is a healthy balance sheet.  These are all companies we have been tracking in recent weeks/months, and they are listed in alphabetical order.

Arianne Phosphate Inc. (DAN, TSX-V) – $1.34

We see a good possibility of a bigger fish swallowing Arianne sometime in 2014 given the highly encouraging feasibility study it released just recently on its Lac à Paul Phosphate Project in Quebec.  The economics are strong with an IRR of 20.7% and an initial payback period of 4.4 years (26-year mine life) before taxes and mining duties.  Average annual phosphate concentrate production is estimated at 3 million tonnes with a grade of 38.6% P2O5 and an average mill recovery of 90%.  This high-quality phosphate rock can be recovered from conventional processing of Lac à Paul ore. The company has added about $6 million in cash to its treasury this month through the exercise of warrants and a flow-through private placement at $1.80 per share.

Azincourt Uranium Inc. (AAZ, TSX-V)28 cents

One can’t ignore the uranium sector, especially the prolific Patterson Lake South discovery and surrounding plays.  Since April, AAZ has been trading in a horizontal channel between 20 cents and the mid-30’s with its rising 200-day moving average (SMA) – currently at 23.5 cents – providing tremendous support.  Drilling over the winter at the Patterson Lake North Property (50-50 JV between AAZ and Fission Uranium) could be a significant catalyst for Azincourt, while the company also just recently acquired the advanced-stage Macusani Uranium Property in southeastern Peru along with some nearby early-stage opportunities.

Barisan Gold Corp. (BG, TSX-V) 29.5 cents

We don’t care for Barisan’s jurisdiction (Indonesia) but the company reported a world class Gold-Copper porphyry drill hole result November 5 (904 m grading 0.41 g/t Au and 0.25% Cu) with follow-up drilling in progress.  Results from hole UTD-004 (fully mineralized from 6.6 m to 964 m as of December 11 as stated in the company’s MD&A) could still be several weeks away, providing ample opportunity for more speculators to jump on board.  The objective of the current hole is to identify the depth and general location of the potassic zone and associated bornite mineralization (potential higher grades) at Upper Tengkering.  Technically, the stock has been gradually unwinding an overbought condition that emerged last month when BG quadrupled in value over just a few trading sessions.  Just over 40 million shares outstanding, so the current market cap is modest in our view given the geological and speculative possibilities.

Contact Exploration Inc. (CEX, TSX-V)30.5 cents

Contact is a quality Alberta energy play with a confirmed technical breakout as John has indicated.  Contact continues to accelerate its Kakwa Montney play, and is poised for further increases in production as East Kakwa pushes westward.  Stock has broken out of a horizontal channel in place since late last year between 18 and 28 cents.

Fission Uranium Inc. (FCU, TSX-V) – $1.00

An obvious selection given how the Patterson Lake South discovery is shaping up (grades are stunning).  With Fission now holding 100% of that project, the company is clearly a potential takeover target in 2014.  Analysts believe that PLS could host one of the lowest cash cost uranium operations in the world.  Technically, FCU’s 50-day moving average has been in decline since October which has been putting some downward pressure on the stock.  Some additional weakness is certainly possible early in the New Year, just based on technical considerations, but overall this play should deliver next year.

Garibaldi Resources Corp. (GGI, TSX-V) 11 cents

Investors must always pay close attention to share structure, and Garibaldi has a huge advantage over most of its peers in that department as it hasn’t had to carry out a major financing since early 2009.  In Mexico, GGI has several interesting scenarios brewing and even if just one of them connects – look out.  Current drilling at La Patilla is taking direct aim at a known mineralized system that returned high-grade Gold values over significant widths from recent channel sampling. A long-term agreement with the local community is in place for potential future metal extraction from La Patilla where artisanal miners have been active for many decades.  Meanwhile, in B.C., GGI’s Grizzly Property has all the makings of a hot exploration play in 2014.  Expect GGI to come out swinging in January as this very active company reports on developments at various properties.  One of few juniors with some cash flow and a management team focused 100% on just one company.

GoldQuest Mining Inc. (GQC, TSX-V) – 23 cents

GoldQuest disappointed investors on the discovery front in 2013 as more was expected from its exploration efforts in the Dominican Republic, especially along the newly discovered Guama trend.  But they have yet to test the best targets there (drilling is expected to commence during the upcoming first quarter).  GoldQuest, however, did produce a maiden NI-43-101 resource estimate for its Romero and Romero South deposits (just over 2 million ounces in total in the indicated and inferred categories), and a PEA for the project is expected to be completed by the middle of next year.  Trading in the low 20’s and still armed with more than $10 million in its treasury, GQC is well-positioned to take advantage of a better overall market in 2014.  This stock has a history of sudden and sharp moves to the upside – the key is to buy low and remain patient.

Macro Enterprises Inc. (MCR, TSX-V) – $6.00

We first alerted our readers to Macro in late May when it was trading around $3 a share.  The current chart is showing some weakness, so a further pullback to important support (such as the 200-day SMA) – if that should occur – would represent another outstanding investor opportunity with this situation in our view.  The Macro story is very simple – it’s a construction and maintenance service provider to the energy and resource industries in B.C. and Alberta.  Through the first nine months of its fiscal year ending September 30, Macro recorded net income of nearly $25 million or 91 cents per share.  It’s particularly busy at the moment in the Fort McMurray area.  Pipeline and facility construction, and pipeline repair work, can be quite profitable and there appears to be no shortage of potential contracts for MCR at the moment.

Madalena Energy Inc. (MVN, TSX-V) 65 cents

Madalena has performed exceedingly well in recent months and also just raised an additional $12 million, mostly through a bought-deal financing at 47 cents.  The company is very active with a large land base of over 150 net sections (100,000+ net acres) in the Paddle River area of west-central Alberta with increasing production and reserves on three horizontal plays.  MVN also has very attractive assets in Argentina where it’s focused on the multi-billion barrel potential of three large blocks within the “sweet spot” of that country’s prolific Neuquen basin.  MVN has enjoyed a nice run-up since late November and could retreat a little more after hitting a nearly 2-year high of 73 cents last week.  Look for the 20-day SMA, currently in the upper 50’s, to provide strong support.

Magor Corp. (MCC, TSX-V) 37 cents

A tech play we like for the long-term – 2014 could be Magor’s breakout year after the company first started trading on the Venture last spring.  Magor is a “visual collaboration” company led by an all-star management team that includes some of the same senior personnel that guided Newbridge Networks.  Yesterday, Magor reported “solid growth” in its existing software transaction business, and the company is also in the process of rolling out its key Aerus cloud-based services.  We expect Magor’s business model to really start to kick into gear during the second half of next year.  The market is a forward-looking machine, so some share price strength should start to materialize during Q1 if investors conclude that MCC is on the right track.  No guarantees but superb potential here as we’ve seen their impressive technology in action.

North American Nickel Inc. (NAN, TSX-V)23 cents

North American Nickel generated some excitement over the summer with high-grade drill results from its Maniitsoq Project in Greenland, specificially the Imiak Hill Conduit Complex.  When drilling resumes in 2014, expect this play to heat up again.  Importantly, the company is developing a growing list of targets throughout the large Maniitsoq package which it believes has the potential to host the world’s next sulphide Nickel-Copper-Cobalt camp.

North Arrow Minerals Inc. (NAR, TSX-V) – 67 cents

Investors looking for opportunities and action in the diamond exploration sphere should find North Arrow quite enticing.  They are well-financed and active on several fronts, and the stock responded well to news in early November of a discovery at the company’s early-stage Pikoo Project in Saskatchewan.  Should get more attention in 2014.

Prosper Gold Corp. (PGX, TSX-V)35 cents

Prosper delivered stellar drill results from its Star target at the Sheslay Copper-Gold Porphyry Project over the summer, but the prospect of no activity over the winter months drove the stock lower after the last assays were announced at the end of October.  Prosper’s results and historical numbers from the Star show remarkable consistency of mineralization – in stark contrast to Colorado Resources’ North ROK Property.  What’s shaping up at the Sheslay is a potentially very large tonnage system (multiple targets) with grades that so far are superior to those at the Schaft Creek deposit to the south.  Prosper will attack the Sheslay aggressively beginning in the second quarter of next year, so investors with some patience (a 6-9 month window) should be rewarded handsomely.  A first-rate management and geological team should give investors comfort that this play has a great chance of becoming a huge success.

Probe Mines Ltd. (PRB, TSX-V) $2.12

A declining Gold price won’t stop a legitimate discovery play from moving forward, and that has been the case with Probe in 2013.   Probe’s Borden Lake Gold Project in northeastern Ontario has been one of the top plays this year in the exploration space with the company identifying a higher-grade system contiguous to the original bulk tonnage deposit.  How Borden Lake continues to develop in 2014, with winter drilling planned, will be interesting to watch.  An updated resource estimate is expected in the near future.  Meanwhile, preliminary metallurgical results for the potential underground high-grade mineralization extending southeast from the proposed open-pit show excellent extraction of Gold using standard processing techniques.  Agnico Eagle took a piece of Probe last spring through a financing which was a very positive sign.  The rising 200-day SMA around $1.85 provides excellent support.

Radius Gold Inc. (RDU, TSX-V)9.5 cents

Radius bottomed in late June at 6 cents and has retraced a little more than 50% of its move to 15 cents in August.  The company had $12 million in working capital as of the end of September, and is continuing a review of precious metal exploration projects and/or distressed juniors that may be available for acquisition or joint venture.  At some point, expect Simon Ridgway to pull the trigger on a sensible deal.  There are more exciting situations in the market at the moment, but RDU has to be considered attractive around current levels where it climbed 10-fold between early 2009 and late 2010.

Reservoir Minerals Inc. (RMC, TSX-V) – $5.32

Speaking of discoveries, Reservoir appears to have a big one on its hands at its Timok Project (a JV with Freeport McMorRan) in eastern Serbia (RMC also holds a 100% interest in other areas within the highly prospective Timok Magmatic Complex).  A recent drill result from a known high-grade zone at the Cukaru Peki target (part of the Freeport JV) returned a 166-metre interval grading a spectacular 7.75 g/t Au and 6.65% Cu (11.29% CuEq)Reservoir hit an all-time high of $5.75 December 11.  Again, Gold can do what it wants – a discovery play like this will march to its own drumbeat.

Ryan Gold Corp. (RYG, TSX-V) 13.5 cents

The downtrend appears to be over for Ryan Gold, ironically after it pulls out of an area (the Yukon) that allowed this company to raise more than $50 million in the spring of 2011.  Ryan Gold still has more than $20 million in working capital and is searching for new opportunities at a time when some tremendous property bargains are available.  Patient investors should do well at current levels.  The stock has been in a healthy basing/consolidation pattern since last April.

Terrax Minerals Inc. (TXR, TSX-V) – 50 cents

Terrax could make some noise in 2014 as it ramps up exploration at its Northbelt Gold Property which covers approximately 13 km of strike along the prolific Yellowknife Gold Belt on the northern extension of the geology that contained the Giant (7.6-million-ounce) and Con (5.5-million-ounce) Gold mines.  The company has received some interesting results from the re-logging and re-sampling of old drill core in preparation for its own drill program.  Virginia Mines Inc., a current shareholder of Terrax, participated in the first tranche of a private placement at 45 cents that closed last Friday.

True Gold Mining Inc. (TGM, TSX-V) 40 cents

A wall of resistance at 40 cents with True Gold appears to be crumbling.  Last week, the company announced a very positive feasibility study for its Karma Project in Burkina Faso, West Africa, and this was immediately followed by receipt of an exploitation permit from the Burkina Faso Council of Ministers.  Operating and capital requirements for this project are modest, and the margins are high based on the results of the feasibility study.

Wanted Technologies Corp. (WAN, TSX-V) – $1.50

A second tech play on our Venture list, and one that’s currently making money. Headquartered in Quebec City with subsidiary offices in New York, Wanted provides real-time business intelligence for the talent marketplace.  It’s also the exclusive data provider for the Conference Board’s Help-Wanted OnLine Data Series™, the monthly economic indicator of hiring demand in the United States. Technically, WAN clearly has momentum on its side at the moment but at some point over the short to medium term, likely during the upcoming first quarter, the stock will need to unwind an overbought condition.


7 Comments

  1. I would be remiss if i neglected to acknowledge
    my cyber friends , especially at this time of year.
    In no order of preference, i would like to thank
    Terry, Jon & John for their contributions during
    the past year & wish them & their families a very
    Merry Xmas & a Happy New Year. Last but not least,
    my cyber friends, even those, who take exception
    to my postings, a Very Merry Xmas & a Happy New
    Year to you all & your families. A drink may be
    okay at this time of year, but please don’t drink
    & drive & may it not interfere with the love
    surrounding you. Treat each day with your families
    as if there is no tomorrow. R !

    Comment by Bert — December 24, 2013 @ 6:59 am

  2. Bert, a very, merry Christmas to you also!!

    Comment by Greg J. — December 24, 2013 @ 7:33 am

  3. Merry Christmas to Everyone

    hope Santa is good to you and your families

    have a safe and wonderful time

    we”ll be back on Friday

    Hugh

    Comment by ChartTrader — December 24, 2013 @ 1:00 pm

  4. Thank you, Bert, from my home to yours – a very Merry Christmas, and a New Year full of peace, joy, good health and prosperity. Thank you for your contributions to this board, because it wouldn’t be the same without you. I know we sometimes don’t always agree with each other, but we agree to disagree in the spirit of friendship, and we respect one another’s opinions, and that’s what’s important.

    Merry Christmas and the best of the season to all of our readers. There are better days ahead in the junior market, just hang in there. We will continue to work tirelessly to serve our readers, and we thank each of you for your feedback and for sharing positive ideas. The more we can encourage and help each other, the better. I believe we’ll see a year with some exciting discoveries, with the Venture finally breaking out of this malaise. Have a wonderful Christmas and may the joy and true spirit of Christmas, the reason for the season, fill your hearts.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — December 24, 2013 @ 5:55 pm

  5. Hi Jon,
    Twenty stocks to follow and maybe even buy on dips. Do you intend to modify it as required, rejecting stocks that do not fit BMR criteria. I was dreading that RBW would not make the list, and it was prescient. Finally, will you produce a BMR20 index, and do an occasional comparison to the Venture.
    May you, your team, and all beings have peace and bliss in their hearts. All.

    Comment by Alexandre — December 25, 2013 @ 2:51 am

  6. Thanks, Alexandre, and Merry Christmas. Early in the New Year we’ll do the same sort of review with a series of “cheapies” – companies that have driven down to a nickel or below and have a chance to recover, even though they may not be sitting on much cash. I believe there are quite a few in that state that have the potential to bounce back strongly for one reason or another. The 20 we outlined yesterday all have some serious strength; some will bust out of the gate quickly in January, others will need more time and could become even better bargains during the first quarter. Not sure about the index idea but it will be interesting to track how those 20 do.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — December 25, 2013 @ 9:24 am

  7. Wondering where all the junior producing companies are? Not in the top 20???

    Comment by Michael — January 4, 2014 @ 2:02 pm

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