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Gold took off at 5:30 am Pacific after the release of a disappointing U.S. jobs number for September (148,000 vs. a consensus estimate of 180,000), another great example of how poor fiscal policy in Washington and political wrangling are likely going to prevent the Fed from scaling back QE until well into 2014…as of 5:50 am Pacific, the yellow metal is up $13 an ounce at $1,330…a close above resistance at $1,320 would be very bullish…Silver is up 34 cents at $22.59…Copper has gained 4 pennies to $3.31…Crude Oil has hit its lowest level since early July, pressured by rising U.S. inventories reflecting slow demand from the world’s top consumer…WTIC is currently flat at $99.26…inventories rose by a more than expected 4 million barrels in the week ending October 11 and increased at the Cushing oil storage hub for the 1st time since the end of June, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed yesterday…the agency resumed the publication of its weekly inventory data which was delayed by the 16-day partial U.S. government shutdown…the U.S. Dollar Index is off one-fifth of a point to 79.51 after the jobs report…

London Bullion Market Association Gold forward rates have turned negative again, highlighting an apparent physical Gold shortage, says ETF Securities in a report carried by Kitco this morning.  “It is interesting to note that LBMA Gold forward rates have again dipped into negative territory, highlighting that physical demand – possibly from central banks as well as short covering – remains strong,” ETF Securities says. “This tightness has continued into the new week, indicating this was not solely short-term pre-debt deadline hedging and post-agreement short-covering demand. It seems clear the fact the U.S. debt issue has not been resolved, but only postponed, is accelerating central banks’ and private investors’ search for alternatives to the U.S. dollar as a reserve asset, with Gold one of the few viable alternatives.”

Global holdings in Gold ETP’s have fallen to around 2,027 metric tons, around the low from May 2010, according to data from Barclays…the record was 2,768.16 tons at the start of the year…outflows for October so far are around 34 tons, surpassing 25.7 tons in September and 17.9 in August, according to Suki Cooper, vice president and precious-metals analyst with Barclays… holdings in the world’s largest Gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD, NYSE), are at their lowest level since February 2009, Barclays added…holdings in GLD stood at 882.23 metric tons as of Friday, according to the ETF’s web site…they fell 8.75 tons over the previous week and are now down 468.59 tons, or 35%, since 1,350.82 as of the end of 2012…redemptions were especially heavy when Gold crashed during the spring, with an outflow of 142.72 tons in April…

Venture Breaks Above Down Trendline In Place Since 2011

After failed attempts in 2012 and again at the beginning of 2013, the Venture has finally broken above a down trendline on a 3-year weekly chart…this move requires confirmation, but what’s particularly encouraging is how the RSI(14) is climbing in a trendline and at 47% still has plenty of room to head higher…this is a major technical development and suggests to us that the Venture bear market could indeed be over and that Gold prices have bottomed and could surprise to the upside this quarter…the Venture has built solid support in the low 900’s and is now at a 5-month high…

Venture Short-Term Daily Chart

Below is a 3-month daily CDNX chart…you can see that after several successive attempts since August, the Venture yesterday finally pushed through resistance at 955…buying pressure is showing signs of picking up which is important as there is more stiff resistance at 970…not shown on this 3-month chart, of course, is the 100-day moving average (SMA) which has flattened out at 928 and is now poised to reverse to the upside which should provide an additional momentum boost…

TSX Gold Index Updated Chart

Shorts beware – the TSX Gold Index appears to have formed a double bottom…like the Venture, the Gold Index RSI(14) is showing a rising trendline…could jump quickly to the upside…

6-Month Daily Copper Chart

We’re seeing positive signs as well in the Copper market…Copper’s recent breakout from the handle was not strong enough to push the metal above the top of the cup resistance at $3.38 and its consolidation has formed a symmetrical triangle…theory says a symmetrical triangle can break either up or down…however, given the RSI(14) pattern, and the fact Copper is riding above its SMA-20, the probability in our view is that the price will bust through the symmetrical triangle before meeting resistance again around $3.38…note that the Bollinger Bands are narrow which means some near-term volatility in Copper is indeed likely…this morning’s action in Copper seems to confirm this analysis…

Today’s Markets

Asian markets were mixed overnight…Japan’s Nikkei average posted a slight gain (20 points) to close at 14713…China’s Shanghai Composite, meanwhile, slipped 19 points to finish at 2211…average prices for new homes in China continue to rise, according to data released today by the National Bureau of Statistics, with the pace accelerating for the 8th consecutive month…as in August, prices were up in 69 out of 70 cities in September, despite nearly 4 years of controls on the property market…

European shares are higher in late trading overseas…in New York, stock index futures are nudging higher as of 5:50 am Pacific…the S&P 500 hit another intra-day record yesterday and eked out a slight gain to close at 1,744.66…meanwhile, the Nasdaq touched a fresh 13-year high and closed at 2920…

The TSX closed at 13197 yesterday while the Venture finished up 9 points at 960…

Madalena Energy Inc. (MVN, TSX-V)

Refer to yesterday’s chart – Madalena Energy (MVN, TSX-V), active in the Paddle River area of west-central Alberta, as well as Argentina, broke through resistance at 50 cents yesterday and closed up a nickel at 53 cents (a new 52-week high) on volume of 2.4 million shares (all exchanges)…buy pressure continues to increase…the cup-with-handle breakout target is 56 cents, but John’s Fib. levels above that are 67 cents (88.2%), 81 cents (50%) and 95 cents (61.8%)…the 20-day SMA, currently at 48 cents, has been providing rock-solid support…

Brigus Gold (BRD, TSX)

Strong drill results from Brigus Gold (BRD, TSX) and record Q3 production at its Black Fox Mine in Timmins have given this stock a big lift since the middle of last week, and yesterday BRD pushed through resistance at 70 cents…BRD has climbed 30% while trading 5.5 million shares over the last 3 sessions…next major chart resistance, as John pointed out yesterday, is 85 cents…

Starcore International (SAM, TSX)

Starcore International (SAM, TSX) continues to look strong and is threatening to overcome resistance at 24 cents…it closed up 2 pennies yesterday at 23 cents on the best volume (282,000 shares) in nearly a month…after eliminating the debt overhanging the company, SAM is drilling aggressively at its San Martin Mine in Mexico in order to increase reserves and resources…proven and probable reserves are adequate for 2 more years of production but the large land package is highly prospective for additional discoveries…

Doubleview Capital Corp. (DBV, TSX-V)

Doubleview Capital (DBV, TSX-V) is looking stronger technically as it commences drilling at its Hat Property contiguous to the Sheslay and Grizzly properties…DBV’s rising 20-day SMA at 7 cents is providing strong support while the 50-day SMA has flattened out just beneath the 20-day and appears poised to reverse to the upside…with exploration results due shortly from Prosper Gold (PGX, TSX-V) and Garibaldi Resources (GGI, TSX-V), including 3 important holes from Prosper that have the potential to produce some eye-popping numbers, the Sheslay area should soon be attracting much more attention…

Canada Carbon Inc. (CCB, TSX-V) Chart Update

Canada Carbon (CCB, TSX-V), as we’ve pointed out, has a tendency to be extremely volatile but a successful trading strategy has been to accumulate on weakness…the weekly chart has been showing strong support at 20 cents, and the stock appears to have unwound an overbought condition that emerged in late August/early September…CCB jumped 2 pennies yesterday to close at 24 cents…it appears to have enough momentum behind it again to push through Fib. resistance at 25 cents, but we’ll see…as always, perform your own due diligence…

Azincourt Uranium Inc. (AAZ, TSX-V) Chart Update

The Saskatchewan uranium should remain red-hot right through the winter, and one of the juniors in an excellent position to benefit from that is Azincourt Uranium (AAZ, TSX-V) which gained a penny-and-half yesterday on strong volume to close at 24 cents…looks bullish as John shows in this 15-month weekly chart…

Note: Both John and Jon hold share positions in GGI and PGX.